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Accueil > Tous les articles The global skills convergence The Global Skills Convergence argues that there is a demographic faultline running through much of the developed world which will impact negatively on the supply of labor and talent during the next decade. The faultline is the time at which more Baby Boomers (born 1946-1961) exit the workforce than Generation Ys (born 1976-1991) and Millenniums (born 1991-2006) enter the workforce at age 15. The delayed entry into the workforce caused by a longer engagement with education means that the faultline is largely an interplay between retiring Baby Boomers and newly arriving Generation Ys with Generation X caught in between. The demographic faultline is caused by the sudden jump in fertility that followed the end of World War II. This initial ‘jump’ in 1946 was the beginning of the baby boom and it applied largely to western economies with the exception of Ireland where the fertility rate remained high for much of the 20th century. The baby boom neither started nor ended in the Latino Christian, African, Indian or Arab worlds. The end of the western baby boom was signaled in the 1960s by the arrival of, and access to contraception and by the changed expectations and priorities of women. Again, these developments applied in some countries and not others. The demographic faultline applies at different times in different countries. The pool of people from which Japan draws its labor force began to contract in the mid-1990s. In the United States (US) the slowdown in the rate of growth in the productive population begins at the end of this decade. In China the faultline applies from the middle of next decade. The diminution in the number of people in China aged 15-64 results from the application of the one-child policy in the mid-1970s which impacts labor markets precisely 40 years later. Could this be the issue that knocks China off its current growth trajectory? KPMG’s global International Executive Services (IES) practice has accessed, with permission, unpublished data from the United Nations Population Division which shows the net flow of migrants between a range of countries this decade and again ten years earlier. Unfortunately, this data set does not include information for the US. However, what it does show is the recent outflow of Poles to developed European Union nations as well as of Romanians to Italy and of Pakistanis to the United Kingdom (UK). There were also net outflows from the UK to Spain and Australia. > Download the report, click here     Par JS Date 23-09-2008 Imprimer cet article| Envoyer à un ami | Réagir à cet article